Arbitration at Li Ren law firm

1. It's not a zero-sum game and the winning range is 3-7. So the undertake is between 5-9 millions .

2. It takes 6-12 months depending on arbitrator and since the amount is 160.000 only , to me a 5-5 or 4-6 chance outcome will arrive within 6 months 

3. Total coat on hand 

- law firm : 300.000

- arbitration fees : 160.000 

- time / man power 

- political risk unknown 

My question :

1. Do we really win money back form culture affair ministry ? Unlikely 

2. Our people don't know who our arbitrator is ? How we going to win ?